IMPENDING BITCOIN ETF :: BUY THE RUMOR, BUY THE NEWS[1]
There’s a ton of talk about potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) soon.
On Wall Street, there’s an old saying, “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” The theory is that if most of the investors who are interested in an impending event anticipate that development and buy, then by the time one gets to the actual event, there are no natural sellers with many of the buyers having already exhausted themselves.
So, as we approach what appears to be the worst kept secret in blockchain, the launch of a number of spot Bitcoin ETFs, will the news, when it finally does come, be a time to sell?
Let’s review the past before we share thoughts on the future.
That adage worked literally perfectly in the last two big regulatory announcements in our space.
CME FUTURES LAUNCH
At one of our investor summits, the former chairman of the CFTC, Chris Giancarlo, pointed out a wild fact that I hadn’t put two and two together before. All during 2017, the markets were rallying with the mantra “When the CME lists bitcoin futures, we’re GOING TO THE MOON!!!”
The markets did rally – 2,448% – until **the very day** futures listed. That was the top. An -84% bear market started that day.
COINBASE PUBLIC LISTING
The markets repeated the exact same cycle in the runup to the public listing of Coinbase. The whole industry reveled in Coinbase’s upcoming direct listing. The bitcoin market was up 848% coming into the day of the listing. Bitcoin peaked at $64,863 that day and a -76% bear market started.
When we originally wrote about this in 2021 I quipped:
“Will someone please remind me the day before the bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table.”
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
I believe that Exchange Traded Funds for bitcoin will be seen as a big step in the adoption of digital assets. Before discussing the product and its implications to the industry, let’s take a moment to reflect on how far the industry has come.
A Short History of Buying Bitcoin
Acquiring bitcoin has evolved drastically over the past decade. In the early days, people would give away free bitcoin through what were referred to as “bitcoin faucets”. When I first got into Bitcoin, Gavin Andresen had the BitcoinFaucet – giving away free bitcoin just for signing up. My brother sent me some free bitcoins back in the day.
Soon people needed a place to trade bitcoin. A site for trading playing cards called Magic The Gathering Online eXchange shortened its name and allowed enthusiasts to also trade a digital money called bitcoin – Mt.Gox.
Bitstamp – the oldest exchange still in operation – launched in August 2011. There was also LocalBitcoins – a marketplace that would match buyers and sellers for in-person trades. Wow, that’s the old days.
We now have hundreds of exchanges. However, many are offshore opaque exchanges that bear more similarity to FTX than they do to the New York Stock Exchange. Many institutions don’t feel comfortable trading and custodying with these entities. IRA accounts and other types of financial accounts typically don’t have access to crypto exchanges.
Futures Are From The Past
Futures didn’t have much of an impact. Having traded currencies for thirty-five years, I know that old school fiat currencies don’t use futures much. The FX market is almost entirely cash/spot.
Although it sounds like an oxymoron – bitcoin futures are actually a step backwards.
Bitcoin futures miss the entire “theme-iness” (as my friend Andrew Lawrence says) of bitcoin. The elegant beauty of bitcoin is that bitcoin trades “t-minus zero” – the trade **is** the settlement. To then have the hassle of rolling – say March to June – when bitcoin is already settled is unnecessary.
There’s no “T+2” settlement, collateral, monthly futures rolls, or cash-settle market manipulation on sketchy exchanges. All the beauty of bitcoin is lost when we go back in time to monthly cash-settled futures.
Don’t get me wrong – I think it’s great that futures exist. They bring in thousands of new traders who couldn’t otherwise access bitcoin. The CME and CBOE listing, and the CFTC regulating, bitcoin futures is a huge positive step in the credentialization of protocol tokens.
Perspective on the bitcoin futures market vs. cash/spot market (percentage of spot):
– Average daily volume in October 2023 was 13,300 contracts/$38mm notional vs. $6,169mm on spot exchanges (0.4%)[2]
Impact Of An ETF
While starting a prediction with “This time is different…” is not usually an auspicious way to begin, I believe it here.
The two previous bitcoin price peaks were:
– The day CME futures went live — December 18, 2017 – was the peak at $20k, the price fell 65% immediately and 84% at the ultimate lows.
– The day Coinbase listed — April 14, 2021 – $65k, the price fell 54% immediately and 76% at the ultimate lows.
Neither of those events had any impact on real world access to bitcoin.
It was all “Buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Bitcoin futures didn’t open up any significant new pools of investors. They’re only interesting to a very small niche of mainly arbitragers. Not much net new buying.
The Coinbase offering is even more clear. Coinbase’s website worked great when it was privately held. The next day, when it was publicly-owned the website worked just the same. The change in who owned Coinbase stock did nothing to increase access to bitcoin.
This is different. A BlackRock ETF fundamentally changes access to bitcoin. It will have a huge (positive) impact.
We strongly believe many spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved. We also believe it will happen in a matter of a month or two – not years.
I was at Goldman when they did the GSCI. Now everyone thinks of Commodities as an asset class. In the 90’s I was very active in emerging markets. Now everyone thinks of EM as an asset class. Blockchain will be just like that. The existence of an ETF is a very important step in becoming an asset class. Once an ETF exists, if you don’t have exposure, you’re effectively short.
“Buy the rumor, buy the news.”
Gold ETFs :: Both Digital and Old School Gold
Many market observers think the best analogy for the launch of a “digital gold” ETF will be the impact of the launch of ETFs for physical gold. The first gold ETF was launched outside the US in 2003 and the first US ETF, GLD, launched in 2004. The analogy is probably a good one, as in the early 2000’s holding physical gold was difficult for many investors, and custody of crypto assets is a challenge for many investors today. In addition, the ease of access, low cost and trustworthy nature of the sponsor almost certainly brought new investors into the gold market who would not have participated previously.
We expect the same to happen with the Bitcoin ETFs when they launch. The demand function for bitcoin is likely to change permanently when investors have that option. There is another important implication for bitcoin, and crypto generally, from the launch of the ETFs. Twenty years ago, the ETF launches had a legitimizing effect on the idea of allocating to the commodity in one’s portfolio. We expect the presence of the most respected brands in consumer finance in the first wave of Bitcoin ETFs to have a similar impact.
We should also anticipate that we will see a small number of the entrants garner most of the market share. The larger the ETF, the more efficiently it tends to price, which starts a virtuous cycle that makes the larger ones more marketable. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ($54.6bn) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ($25.3bn) represent almost 90% of the US gold ETF value, with no other competitor over $10bn.
“Some say a bitcoin ETF will steal demand from traditional retail venues. I don’t think so.
“Consider demand for gold bars/coins before and after the gold ETF:
“2003: 293 tonnes
“2022: 1,107 tonnes
“The ETF legitimized gold as an investment and demand for physical gold soared.”
– Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise
RIPPLE’S WINNING STREAK
Our forecast that regulatory clarity would be the **positive** black swan few were expecting keeps playing out. Our first portfolio company, Ripple Labs, has had three major legal victories in a matter of months.
Excerpts from Ripple’s Q3 Shareholder Update:
“The SEC voted to dismiss ‘with prejudice’ the claims against Chris [Larsen] and me [Brad Garlinghouse], that were scheduled to be tried next year. ‘With prejudice’ means that the SEC can’t later change their mind and refile their claim…
“This was the THIRD Ripple victory vs. the SEC this year. First, in July, the Court ruled that as a matter of law, XRP is NOT a security. Then, October 3, the Court DENIED the SEC’s motion for an interlocutory (interim) appeal. And now this dismissal with prejudice – it’s really quite a winning streak.”
FTX
Speaking of positive black swans…
It took over seven and a half years to get Elizabeth Holmes to jail – and out of the headlines.
Elizabeth Holmes was outted as a fraud by The Wall Street Journal on October 15, 2015. She was convicted on January 3, 2022. She was sentenced to 11 years in prison on November 18, 2022. She finally arrived at prison on April 27, 2023.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud was called out by CoinDesk on November 2, 2022.
Everything since then has been at staggering speed:
Arrested December 12, 2022
Indicted December 13, 2022
Waived extradition December 20, 2022
Extradited December 21, 2022
First U.S. court appearance December 22, 2022
Convicted November 2, 2023
His behavior prior to the trial was so bad that his 250 MILLION DOLLAR bail was revoked, so he’s been in jail since before he was convicted. But, let’s give him all the way to the latest date, the conviction: It took exactly one year to the day to put him behind bars. That’s wild – and so nice for the rest of us.
I was dreading that our industry would have to endure waking up every day to headlines about Mr. Bankman-Fried, Mr. Bankman, and Ms. Fried for ages.
Nope. The jury didn’t even count to “five alligators” before coming back with their conviction. The jury announced their guilty verdict just three hours after being empaneled.
I’ve served on several juries. It takes almost that long to get all the jurors and alternates through their bathroom break and the formalities of taking attendance. The actual deliberation on Bankman-Fried must have been just minutes.
(For comparison, the jury took days to return their verdict on Elizabeth Holmes.)
It’s great to put that criminal behind us and move on making the world a better place for billions of people.
4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLES
Bitcoin’s supply and coin distribution ruleset is based purely on mathematics – predictable and transparent by design.
“Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It’ll be distributed to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half every four years. First four years: 10,500,000 coins. Next four years: 5,250,000 coins. Next four years: 2,625,000 coins. Next four years: 1,312,500 coins. Etc. . . .”
— Satoshi Nakamoto, The Cryptography Mailing List, January 8, 2009
This has created a pronounced four-year cyclicality in the price of bitcoin.
The table below shows these cycles. The rhythm is amazingly steady. The rallies are within 23 days of the 1,076-day average bull market (2.95 years). Same tightness on the downside – bear markets end within 24 days of the 382-day average (1.05 years).
**IF** past performance was a predictor of the future, the rally would last until November 1, 2025.
The symmetry of these 4-year blocks is simply amazing.
Future anthropologists are going to be like Erich von Däniken, the Swiss author who made a career writing books with claims about extraterrestrial influences on early human culture, including the best-selling Chariots of the Gods (1968). He was one of the main figures responsible for popularizing the “paleo-contact” and ancient astronauts hypotheses.
Nobody in the future will believe it was possible to align these blocks so perfectly without alien help.
“WE WON”? :: THE INFINITE GIFT THAT IS PAUL KRUGMAN
The self-centeredness of who “we” is in Krugman’s boast that “We won” is just staggering. For sure, rich old guys like Krugman won, but the majority of Americans did not.
“Home-buying affordability fell over the summer to the lowest level since 1985, according to the NAR, meaning in many markets, only those with high incomes or plenty of cash can afford to buy homes right now.”
– Wall Street Journal, “Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust”, October 16, 2023
The Federal Reserve’s manipulation of the housing market has made homes more unaffordable than any time since the 80’s. That’s a theme we’ve been on for two years – how everything is the worst since the 80’s. Why? Because the Fed’s massively negative real fed funds rate was last seen in the 80’s.
And, wow, their manipulation of the mortgage market is unprecedented.
The combined effect of the Fed’s two policy errors plus Congress’s fiscal experiment is that the share of the median household’s income which is required to buy the median home is at levels never seen, even in the 80’s.
The majority of Americans are under 40. Most still need to buy a house. They are not winning.
HOUSING INFLATION
U.S. home prices hit another record in August. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, rose 2.6% from a year earlier.
The combination of high home prices and rising mortgage rates is making home purchasing unaffordable to many would-be buyers. A home buyer needed an income of nearly $115,000 to afford the median-priced U.S. home in August, assuming a 20% down payment, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin. That is up from about $99,000 a year earlier.
Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If home prices kept pace with consumer price inflation, a home bought the last time mortgage rates were as high as they are today (1995) would have gone from $115,000 to $230,000. That home now costs over $400,000.
WHAT RECESSION?
There’s no recession.
Third quarter real GDP was just released at +4.9%.
According to The National Association of Realtors, homes sold in September received an average of 2.6 offers, and about one-fourth of properties sold above their list price.
The Fed ain’t cutting interest rates with a quarter of properties selling above list.
CHARLIE MUNGER…AGAIN
Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2023:
Q: The price of bitcoin has been rocketing higher again. Is that something that concerns you?
“Of course it concerns me. I have a lot of very simple fundamental ideas that I think every educated person ought to have. Those ideas include what Adam Smith taught everybody…. You’ve got a huge increase in what I would call civilization per capita. And it happened automatically just because people take better care of their own property than they take care of somebody else’s property…. In order to get the Smithian results, you need a currency to facilitate exchanges. And to make the currency respected widely, the trick we’ve used is the sovereign issues it.
“The only way to get from hunter-gathering to civilization that we know of that’s ever worked is to have a strong currency. It can be seashells, it can be corn kernels, it can be a lot of things. It can be gold coins, it can be promises in banking systems like we have in the United States and England and so on.
“When you start creating an artificial currency…you’re throwing your stink ball into a recipe that’s been around for a long time, that’s worked very well for a lot of people.”
– Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway
Honestly this is laugh-out-loud funny. What is it with these guys?!?
As one of our industry’s legendary investors said a decade ago in response to Munger’s partner calling bitcoin a “mirage” when bitcoin was trading 5,678% ago:
“The historical track record of old white men who don’t understand technology, crapping on new technology, is – I think – at 100%.”
– Marc Andreessen, CoinSummit 2014[3]
Why can it **obviously** be seashells, but not bitcoin?
Corn kernels?!?!? Whaa? Monsanto’s Round Up created staggering corn kernel inflation. In 1961 the world production of corn kernels was 205 million metric tonnes. It’s now 1,210 million!
[PRODUCT PLUG: Bitcoin will be 21 million…forever.]
Here’s the value of one corn kernel – priced in anything of fixed quantity. It’s crashed 83%.
Would he really rather save his wealth in an inherently debasing currency like corn kernels – or in one that has appreciated 117% a year, on average, for fourteen years?
(However, if you stuck that corn in a cask for 14 years, it’s deterioration would end up a tasty bourbon!)
Sovereign-issued currency? Who voted for the sovereign? I didn’t vote for Jerome Powell.
“Sovereign…currency…a recipe that’s been around for a long time, that’s worked very well for a lot of people.”
No. No, it hasn’t.
This is the same self-centered rich old guy thing as Krugman. Yeah, maybe the inflation generated in the U.S. dollar has been good for a small number of rich, asset-owning guys like Munger, but not for the vast majority of people – both now and in past centuries.
The vast majority of the world’s eight billion people have a currency that didn’t work out well. Actually, most of the world’s citizens are victims of sovereign-issued, life-changing currency disasters.
Even one of the least-bad sovereign monies is a clear example of how sovereigns debase their paper money.
My favorite responsibility when I was at Tiger Management was to facilitate Lady Thatcher’s visits to our Advisory Board meetings in our NYC offices. I would get to sit with her one-on-one for hours – as others got busy preparing other things.
Ask one question like “What do you think about the upcoming euro currency project?” and I would sit spellbound while she lectured extemporaneously, without notes. She had such a remarkable intellect – and strength of conviction.
I’ll give you the Cliffs Notes:
The British pound sterling is the world’s oldest currency. It dates from Anglo-Saxon times around 1,200 years ago.
(She was not a fan of the euro.)
Bringing that up to date on the topic at hand:
The current price of silver is £18.05 per ounce. That’s our first ominous sign – it’s now quoted in smaller units, ounces. It takes sixteen of those to make a pound – so the price of silver is £288.80 per pound.
It now takes 288.80 pounds sterling to buy a pound of sterling (sliver). 288.80 pieces of sovereign-issued paper money to buy one pound of old school money.
And who are these much-esteemed sovereigns?
The current title belt holder in sovereign currency disasters, Banco Central de Venezuela, has inflation at 1,198.0%. Their sovereign currency is literally a humanitarian crisis.
#2 on the inflation list stretches the concept of sovereign-issued currency – Sudan. It’s a failed state so that doesn’t even really meet the definition of sovereignty.
Top for graphic design, Zimbabwe:
For Zimbabwe, it’s not a rhetorical question of who voted for the sovereign. Armed soldiers from the Zimbabwe Defense Forces voted for him – in a coup d’état. I’d rather Satoshi and the 300 million democratically-governed community members manage my currency.
The countries with horrible sovereign-issued currencies are too numerous to list. However, a lifetime achievement award does go out to Argentina. That beautiful country has defaulted a record SEVEN times. (Three football World Cups!) Their inflation is still in the top-10 today.
“The mark of a champion is consistency — and true consistency is established by our habits.”
— Tony Robbins, Author and Motivational Speaker
There are billions of people for whom sovereign-issued money isn’t working out too well. We believe the vast majority of people on earth would have much better lives with bitcoin.
Satoshi gifted this technology to the world for free. It’s not patented. Satoshi owns $40 billion of bitcoins and has never sold a penny.
Not sure why these old timey reactionaries can’t just be grateful for this gift to the billions of people whose lives have been severely impacted by horrible sovereign-issued currencies.
Blockchain is separation of money and state. We each get to vote with our wallet. If we don’t like the inflationary policies of one currency we can switch to another.
As our regular readers know, I think the U.S. has made grave monetary and fiscal policy errors, but nobody asked me to vote. However, I get to vote with my wallet by using blockchain assets to store and increase my savings.
(That Munger quote is so crazy it’s kind of a cheap shot – and Mr. Munger is a very old man. But, somebody has to defend sanity here. They’re still printing that reactionary stuff in the newspaper.)
Fighting the good fight,
CODA
The whole Charlie Munger thing that it’s supposed to be self-evident that only sovereigns can issue money reminds me of the classic Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
ARTHUR: Be quiet! I order you to be quiet!
WOMAN [to DENNIS]: Order, eh? Who does he think he is?
[DENNIS goes back to muck-piling.]
ARTHUR: I am your King!
WOMAN: Well, I didn’t vote for you.
ARTHUR: You don’t vote for kings.
WOMAN: Well, ’ow did you become king then? [goes back to muck-piling]
ARTHUR [staring off into the distance]: The Lady of the Lake [angels sing], her arm clad in the purest, shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water signifying by Divine Providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur [singing stops]. That is why I am your king!
DENNIS [ceasing his muck-piling again]: Listen. Strange women lyin’ in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
ARTHUR: Be quiet!
DENNIS: Well, you can’t expect to wield supreme executive power just ’cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!
ARTHUR: Shut up!
DENNIS: I mean, if I went around sayin’ I was an emperor [ARTHUR comes down to him] just because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me, they’d put me away.
ARTHUR [shaking DENNIS vigorously]: Shut up! Will you shut up!
DENNIS: Ah, now we see the violence inherent in the system.
The U.S. government will sentence you to five years in prison for melting pennies. We can see the violence inherent in the system, man.
Satoshi doesn’t care if you use bitcoin or not.
Supreme monetary power derives from a mandate from the masses. Otherwise, they are welcome to use any other currency which they prefer.
“Put the alternative back in Alts”
PANTERA CONFERENCE CALLS[4]
Our investment team hosts monthly conference calls to help educate the community on blockchain. The team discusses important developments that are happening within the industry and will often invite founders and CEOs of leading blockchain companies to participate in panel discussions. Below is a list of upcoming calls for which you can register via this link.
Investing in Blockchain Conference Call
A discussion of the blockchain opportunity set and how Pantera’s funds are structured to capture value in the current and evolving market environment.
Tuesday, January 16, 2024 9:00am PST / 18:00 CET / 1:00am Singapore Standard Time
Please register in advance via this link:
https://panteracapital.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D81576yJQ4KI8Ai454HPAg
Pantera Liquid Token Fund Investor Call
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 9:00am PST / 18:00 CET / 1:00am Singapore Standard Time
Open only to Limited Partners of the fund.
Blockchain Regulatory Developments with Katrina
Pantera Chief Legal Officer Katrina Paglia will provide a top-down overview of the current crypto regulatory landscape.
Tuesday, February 6, 2024 9:00am PST / 18:00 CET / 1:00am Singapore Standard Time
https://panteracapital.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_THwez-bKQB2UtTQc9pLLZQ
Pantera Early-Stage Token Fund Investor Call
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 9:00am PST / 18:00 CET / 1:00am Singapore Standard Time
Open only to Limited Partners of the fund.
Pantera Venture Fund II Investor Call
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 9:00am PST / 18:00 CET / 1:00am Singapore Standard Time
Open only to Limited Partners of the fund.
Pantera Venture Fund III Investor Call
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 9:00am PDT / 17:00 CET / 12:00am Singapore Standard Time
Open only to Limited Partners of the fund.
Pantera Blockchain Fund Investor Call
Tuesday, April 2, 2024 9:00am PDT / 18:00 CEST / 12:00am Singapore Standard Time
Open only to Limited Partners of the fund.
Join us in learning more about the industry, the opportunities we see on the horizon, and our funds.
PORTFOLIO COMPANY OPEN POSITIONS[5]
Interested in joining one of our portfolio companies? The Pantera Jobs Board features 1,500+ openings across a global portfolio of high-growth, ambitious teams in the blockchain industry. Our companies are looking for candidates who are passionate about the impact of blockchain technology and digital assets. Our most in-demand functions range across engineering, business development, product, and marketing/design.
Below are open positions that our portfolio companies are actively hiring for:
Omni Network – Senior Blockchain Engineer (Remote)
Injective Labs – VP of Engineering (New York / Remote)
Cega – Software Engineer, Solidity (Remote)
Offchain Labs – Product Manager (Remote)
Ondo Finance – Sales Director (Remote)
Alchemy – Engineering Manager (New York or San Francisco)
StarkWare – Senior Software Engineer (Netanya, Israel)
Rarify – Head of Developer Relations (Remote)
Livepeer – Growth Marketer (Remote)
0x Labs – Site Reliability Engineer (Remote)
Obol – Technical Recruiter (Barcelona, Remote)
Flashbots – Engineering Manager (Remote)
Waterfall – Software Engineer (New York)
CoinDCX – Engineering Manager (Remote)
Brine – Infrastructure Engineer (Bengaluru, Karnataka, India)
Visit the Jobs Board here and apply directly or submit your profile to our Talent Network here to be included in our candidate database.
DISCLOSURES
[1] Important Disclosures – Certain Sections of This Letter Discuss Pantera’s Advisory Services and Others Discuss Market Commentary. Certain sections of this letter discuss the investment advisory business of Pantera Capital Management and its affiliates (“Pantera”), while other sections of the letter consist solely of general market commentary and do not relate to Pantera’s investment advisory business. Pantera has inserted footnotes throughout the letter to identify these differences. This section provides educational content and general market commentary. Except for specifically marked sections of this letter, no statements included herein relate to Pantera’s investment advisory services, nor does any content herein reflect or contain any offer of new or additional investment advisory services. Opinions and other statements contained herein do not constitute any form of investment, legal, tax, financial, or other advice or recommendation.
[2] https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/futures/volume-of-bitcoin-futures-monthly
https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot/spot-volume-by-asset
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/getting-ready-for-bitcoins-catalysts
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q&t=2565s
[4] Important Disclosures – This Section Discusses Pantera’s Advisory Services. Information contained in this section relates to Pantera’s investment advisory business. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to invest in any security or to undertake an investment advisory relationship, or as any form of investment, legal, tax, or financial advice or recommendation. Prospective investors should consult their own advisors prior to making an investment decision. Pantera has no duty to update these materials or notify recipients of any changes.
[5] This section does not relate to Pantera’s investment advisory services. The inclusion of an open position here does not constitute an endorsement of any of these companies or their hiring policies, nor does this reflect an assessment of whether a position is suitable for any given candidate.
This letter is an informational document that primarily provides educational content and general market commentary. Except for certain sections specifically marked in this letter, no statements included herein relate specifically to investment advisory services provided by Pantera Capital Management Puerto Rico LP or its affiliates (“Pantera”), nor does any content herein reflect or contain any offer of new or additional investment advisory services. Nothing contained herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to purchase any securities in Funds managed by Pantera (the “Funds”) or any entity organized, controlled, or managed by Pantera and therefore may not be relied upon in connection with any offer or sale of securities. Any offer or solicitation may only be made pursuant to a confidential private offering memorandum (or similar document) which will only be provided to qualified offerees and should be carefully reviewed by any such offerees prior to investing.
This letter aims to summarize certain developments, articles, and/or media mentions with respect to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that Pantera believes may be of interest. The views expressed in this letter are the subjective views of Pantera personnel, based on information that is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made, expressed, or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of the information and opinions. The information contained in this letter is current as of the date indicated at the front of the letter. Pantera does not undertake to update the information contained herein.
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Certain information contained in this letter constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue”, “believe”, or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual policies, procedures, and processes of Pantera and the performance of the Fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements, and no undue reliance should be placed on these forward-looking statements, nor should the inclusion of these statements be regarded as Pantera’s representation that the Fund will achieve any strategy, objectives, or other plans. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of or a guarantee of future results.
It is strongly suggested that any prospective investor obtain independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting, or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate, or other market or economic measure.
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